重庆市农村居民家庭人均消费支出趋势分析  

作　　者：王保玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学管理学院,中国重庆400074

出　　处：《科技视界》2013年第16期63-64,共2页Science & Technology Vision

摘　　要：以重庆市1985年到2012年的农村居民家庭人均消费支出的资料为依据,利用回归分析中的非线性回归模型得到初步预测值,其中的随机干扰项部分结合自回归移动平均(ARMA)进行预测。随机干扰项作为系统外影响因素的综合代表,对它的进一步诠释可以保证模拟值更贴近实际。本文得出的结果表明该方法是合理有效的,对政府公布政策研究具有一定推动作用。The paper is based on the data of per rural resident＇s consumption expenditure from the year of 1985 to 2012 in the city of Chongqing. Using the nonlinear regression model of regression analysion get the preliminary forecasts and its stochastic disturbancepart combines autogressive moving average （ARMA） to forecast. The stochastic disturbance is comprehensive representative of outside-system influencing factors. To further interpretation about it can ensure the simulation more closed to the actual. In this paper, the results show that the method is reasonable and effective, and it has a certain promoting role in announcing apolicy research about the government.

关 键 词：非线性回归 随机干扰 ARMA 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]