安徽省R&D投入与GDP增长关系实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between R&D Input and GDP Growth of Anhui Province

作　　者：关友毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《科学决策》2013年第4期78-94,共17页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171001);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC630208);安徽高等学校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2011A001)

摘　　要：目前,运用R&D指标体系分析国家或地区的科技竞争力以及经济发展潜力,进而将分析结果作为制定科技和经济发展战略的重要参考依据,已经被越来越多的国家或地区所广泛采用。随着市场经济竞争的不断加剧,经济增长对科研活动领域的创新发展要求越来越高,研发投入也越来越大。基于安徽省第二次R&D资源清查公报,结合安徽全省及各地区2000—2010年间R&D投入与GDP的相关统计数据,首先采用协整回归分析方法对安徽全省R&D经费支出与GDP间的关联性进行实证分析,得出研发投入对经济增长具有显著的促进作用的结论,然后在此基础上以定量描述的方式对安徽省各地区的R&D投入水平与GDP增长率进行聚类分析。最后根据聚类分析结果及各地区的发展现状给出相关结论。At present, using the R＆D index system to analyze the potential competitiveness of countries or regions in science＆technology and economic development, and then formulated it as the important reference basis of the scientific and economic development strategy has been more and more widely adopted. Along with the intensively competition of the market economy, require- ments on the field of scientific research innovation and development of the economic growth are getting higher and higher, investment in research and development is also growing. The paper based on the second statistical bulletin of R＆D resources inventory from Anhui Province, com- bined with the statistical data of R＆D input and GDP output of the whole province and its regions from 2000 to 2010, firstly, using cointegration regression analysis method to empirical analyse the association between these two time series, then with the conclusion that R＆D investment has sig- nificantly positive effect on economic growth quantitatively describe and clustering according to the variance of R＆D input and GDP growth rate within the whole regions of Anhui province. Finally, through the results of cluster analysis and the development status of areas to give relevant conclusions.

关 键 词：R&D GRANGER因果检验 协整分析 聚类分析 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]