我国地方政府性债务风险识别和预警体系研究——基于辽宁的样本数据  

Study on Local Government Debt Risk Identification and Early Warning System in China——Based on Field Survey of Liaoning

作　　者：王振宇[1] 连家明[1] 郭艳娇[1] 陆成林[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省财政科学研究所

出　　处：《财贸经济》2013年第7期17-28,共12页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：辽宁省财政科学基金项目"辽宁地方政府债务现状;风险评价及对策研究"(编号:2012A001);辽宁省科技软科学项目"辽宁省地方政府性债务风险预警研究"(编号:2012401029)资助

摘　　要：构建完善的政府债务风险识别和预警体系,对于政府特别是地方政府稳健运行具有非常重要的意义。本文在辽宁省大范围实地调研的基础之上,合理借鉴国内已有研究成果,构建了一套符合省情、具有可操作性的地方政府性债务风险预警体系,并利用该预警体系识别和预警了"十二五"时期辽宁省的存量债务风险和基于不同经济增速假定条件下的新增债务风险。实证结果表明"十二五"时期辽宁地方政府性债务风险总体可控,但开始显性化;宏观经济不确定性使债务风险趋势变数加大;个别地区面临债务升级恶化的危险。It is important to structure the system of local government debt risk identification and early warning for the stable operation of the government, especially of the local government. Therefore, we surveyed 13 cities＇ （excluding Dalian） local government debt of Liaoning. Based on this survey, rationally referring to domestic academic achievements, we built a system which is operable and consistent with the situation of Liaoning local government debt. By using this system, we identified and warned Liaoning＇s local government debt risk during the ＂Twelfth Five-Year Plan＂ period, which includes current risks as well as potential risks in the future with different assumed economic growth rate. The empirical analysis shows that during the ＂Twelfth Five-Year Plan＂ period, Liaoning＇s overall local government debt risk is manageable despite the fact that it is becoming explicit. The macro-economic uncertainty increases the local governments＇ debt risk and a few regions may even face worsened and deteriorated situations.

关 键 词：地方政府性债务 风险识别 预警体系 情景压力 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]