基于自组织协同演化的电力市场运营效率动态评价  

Dynamic Evaluation of Electricity Market Operational Efficiency Based on Self-organizing Co-evolution

作　　者：孙晶琪[1] 燕丽[1] 李春杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2013年第6期1305-1310,共6页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70971038)~~

摘　　要：电力市场是一个包括多因素、涉及多环节的复杂系统,具有典型的自组织协同特性。为了对其运营效率进行动态评价,分析了电力市场的开放性、非平衡性、涌现性等复杂特性,建立了电力市场运营状态的协同演化模型,揭示了其动态演化发展的内在机理。结合PJM区域电力市场,运用协同学绝热消去法,找到了电力市场运营过程中起主导作用的3个序参量:申报供需比、发电储备率及市场出清价。通过求解序参量方程组,找到并分析了定态解的稳定性,得出了电力市场有效运营状态下序参量的稳定值。Electricity market is a complex system involving multi-factors and multi-links, with typical characteristics of self-organization. In order to evaluate its operation efficiency dynamically, this paper analyzes the complex features of power market, such as openness, non-balance and emergence, and establishes the co-evolution model to reveal the internal mechanism of its dynamic evolution. Then by combining PJM regional power market and applying adiabatic elimination of Synergetics, three dominant order parameters were found, namely, declared supply and demand ratio, reserve rate of generation and market clearing price. By solving the order parameter equations, this study finds and analyzes the stability of the steady state solution which can be expressed as the stable value of order parameter in the effective operation of the state electricity market.

关 键 词：自组织 协同演化 动态评价 复杂系统 序参量 

分 类 号：F224.12[经济管理—国民经济]