双车道公路路侧环境客观安全性评估模型  

Assessment Model of Roadside Environment Objective Safety on Two-lane Highway

作　　者：方勇[1] 郭忠印[1] 李志勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]湖南省交通科学研究院,湖南长沙410015

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第7期1025-1030,共6页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：交通运输部西部交通建设科技项目(2009318785009);山西省交通厅科技项目(2010-07)

摘　　要：为了客观评价路侧安全性,从车辆驶入路侧可能性与路侧本体特征安全性两个层次建立路侧环境客观安全性评估模型.将影响路侧安全性的各种路侧本体客观特征指标进行层次划分,在国内外研究成果和一定的调查数据统计分析基础上,确定了各指标安全性等级界定标准,并利用模糊评判方法计算路侧客观特征危险指数.考虑影响车辆侵入路侧的交通组成、线形、路基宽度与路面状况4个客观指标,利用贝叶斯网络方法计算车辆侵入路侧概率.以路侧客观特征危险指数作为X轴,车辆侵入路侧概率作为Y轴构成的平面区域基础上,利用模型综合评价指标作为定量指标进行安全等级划分.研究成果可为路侧安全改进工程方案提供决策依据.For an objective evaluation of roadside safety, assessment model of roadside environment objective safety was established based on the probability of run-into-roadside and the roadside objective characteristics. First, the indicators of the various objective characteristics that affect roadside safety were hierarchically divided, and each indicator safety level were determined on the basis of domestic and overseas research results and certain statistics data. The risk index of the roadside objective characteristics was calculated by fuzzy judgment. Then, the probability of run-into-roadside which considers objective indicators about traffic composition, highway alignment, subgrade width and pavement conditionwas calculated by Bayesian Networks. Finally, based on planar region which was composed by the risk index as X-axis and the enforcement probability as Y-axis, roadside objective safety level was divided by comprehensive evaluation indicator. The results can provide decision for roadside safety improvement program.

关 键 词：双车道公路 路侧环境 模糊评判 贝叶斯网络 (BN) 客观安全性 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]