人民币汇率如何影响中国企业“走出去”——基于VAR模型的动态分析  

VAR Model Based Analysis:How RMB Exchange Rate Influences Chinese Enterprises on “go abroad”

作　　者：夏良科[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《宁波大学学报（理工版）》2013年第3期105-110,共6页Journal of Ningbo University：Natural Science and Engineering Edition

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金(Y6110737);宁波大学学科项目(XKW11005);宁波大学人文社科预研项目(XYY11006)

摘　　要：基于VAR模型,利用向量误差修正模型(VECM)和Granger因果性检验研究了1982～2010年人民币实际汇率水平和汇率波动影响中国企业"走出去"问题.结果显示,人民币的实际汇率升值只在长期内对企业"走出去"有积极作用;在短期内,人民币贬值是推动中国对外投资的因素;但无论在长期还是短期内,汇率的波动显著促进了企业"走出去".同时,结果还表明中国企业"走出去"对汇率水平的变化比对汇率波动的反应更为敏感.Based on VAR model,this paper examines the impact of the real exchange rate level and its volatility on Chinese enterprises ＂go abroad＂ over 1982 to 2010,in which the VECM and Granger causality test are adopted to conduct the study.The results show that the positive relationship between appreciation of RMB real exchange rate and China’s outward FDI exist only in the short run,and this relationship turns negative in the long run.However,the volatility of RMB exchange rate is helpful to stimulate OFDI in both the short run and the long run.Moreover,the results indicate that the decision of Chinese enterprises investing abroad is more sensitive to the exchange rate level changes than to its volatility.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 中国企业“走出去” VAR模型 VECM 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]