商品市场预测的非直线趋势研究  

Non-linear Trend Research of Commodity Market Prediction

作　　者：范雯[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西职业技术学院人事处,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2013年第4期329-332,368,共5页Technology and Innovation Management

摘　　要：市场预测是企业进行各种决策的基础,通过市场预测,企业可以避开市场风险,了解市场需求,有利于提高企业经营效益。文章主要介绍了预测的有关内容、作用、步骤及预测的基本方法,并对非直线趋势预测法作了详细研究,阐述了指数成长曲线模型、修正指数曲线模型、罗吉斯曲线模型、龚珀资曲线模型等四种曲线模型,并利用这些模型对几个实际问题进行了预测,其结果与实际基本相符,提出的理论和方法具有一定的科学性和实际应用价值。Market forecast is the basis of all kinds of enterprise decision-making.Through market forecast,enterprises can avoid market risks,and understand the market demand so as to improve enterprise management benefit.This paper mainly introduced the prediction about the content,function,steps and basic methods of prediction,and the non linear trend prediction method.The paper made a detailed study of the index growth curve model,the modified index curve model,logistic curve model,and information curve model,and used these models to forecast several practical problems.The result is consistent with the actual fact that the proposed theory and method has a certain scientific and practical application value.

关 键 词：市场预测 非直线趋势 罗吉斯曲线模型 龚珀资曲线模型 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]