北海市沿岸风暴潮预报方法研究  

Study of storm surge forecasting methods at Beihai station

作　　者：黄子眉[1,2] 李小维[1,2] 姜绍材[1,2] 段瑞明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局北海海洋环境监测中心站,广西北海536000 [2]广西海洋监测预报中心,广西北海536000

出　　处：《海洋预报》2013年第3期26-31,共6页Marine Forecasts

摘　　要：根据1965—2008年共77个热带气旋影响的北海站过程最大增水资料,采用两种方法进行后报结果研究,结果表明:经验预报方法的计算值与左路台风的实测值拟合较好,但是,当实测值≤70 cm时,其计算值大于左路台风的实测值,当实测值﹥70 cm时,其计算值小于左路台风的实测值;数值预报方法的计算值与左路台风的实测值拟合较好,但是,无论左路台风(实测值﹥70 cm)或中路台风,数值预报方法的计算值都小于实测值,而其它两路台风没有呈现规律性变化;两种预报方法结果检验,得出无论右路台风、中路台风、左路台风(实测值≤70 cm)或左路台风(实测值﹥70 cm)的风暴过程最大增水预报,经验预报方法计算结果均较好,尤其是对左路台风(实测值≤70cm)的风暴潮预报。Based on the storm surge data driven by 77 tropical cyclones at the Beihai station from 1965 to 2008, the hindcast results are studied by two methods. The results shows that： the calculated value by empirical forecasting methods fit better the measured value of the left-track typhoon. However, the calculated value is greater than the measured value of the left-track typhoon when the measured value ≤ 70 cm, while the calculated value is less than the measured value of that when the measured value 〉 70 cm. Numerical prediction method fits well with the observations of the left-track typhoon. But, regardless of the left-track typhoon （the measured value of〉 70 cm） or the middle-track typhoon, the numerical prediction value is less than the true value although the other two typhoons did not show regular changes. The results of two forecasting method above shows that regardless of the right-track typhoon, the middle-track typhoon, the left-track typhoon （measured value ≤70 cm） or left-track typhoon （measured value〉 70 cm）, the storm surge forecasting results of empirical forecasting method are always very good, especially under the left-track typhoon （measured value ≤ 70 cm）.

关 键 词：北海 风暴潮 预报方法 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]