自然气候变率对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展  

Review on the natural factors implications for the climate change in century scale

作　　者：张志华[1] 陈幸荣[1] 蔡怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2013年第3期78-85,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40976015);极地对全球和我国气候变化影响的综合评价(CHINARE 2012-04-04)

摘　　要：对近年来关于自然气候变率对近百年全球、中国气候以及海洋影响的研究成果进行了详细的总结分析。目前的研究认为,20世纪后50年的气温变化,更可能是人类活动的结果,而20世纪的前50年的气候变化,被认为是自然外力和人类活动共同的影响结果;对于中国20世纪气候增暖的原因,研究认为人类活动可能已经对中国的气候变暖产生了影响,但太阳活动、火山爆发及气候系统内部的低频振动对气候变化可能也具有重要影响。另外研究认为引起全球海洋总热容量增加的重要原因是人类活动的影响。We summarized the research achievements in recent years about the effect of the nature climate variation on the global and Chinese climate and ocean in a hundred years. Current studies suggested that the air temperature change in the last 50 years of the 204 century was mainly caused by human activities and it was the combined effects of both nature climate variation and human activity in the first 50 years of the 204 century. For the reasons of the climate wanning in China in the 204 century, it＇s suggested that the human activities must have produced effects of the climate wanning in China, meanwhile, the solar activity, the volcanic eruption and other low frequency oscillations inside of the climate system may also have important impact. Another study indicated that the important factor of global ocean heat content increasing was the impact of human activities.

关 键 词：自然气候变率 近百年气候变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]