产业生态视角下的经济规模演化规律——一个基于全球长程历史数据的经验检验  

An Empirical Survey on the Evolutional Law in Economic Scales in View of Industrial Ecology: Based on the Long-term Historical Data of the World

作　　者：吕晓峰[1] 王稼琼[2] 肖永青[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100026

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第3期26-30,共5页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(10BJL048)

摘　　要：使用近两千年来的长程历史数据,对全球人口数量变化、全球GDP总量和人均GDP的变化情况是否符合产业生态理论中的逻辑斯蒂增长模型进行经验检验,结果显示:上述三个变量与逻辑斯蒂增长模型均有较好拟合,而且方程和参数的统计显著性水平也都处于较高水平。With an emperical survey on the long-term historical data of total population, total GDP and GDP per capita in the past 2,000 years, a test is conducted to verify the affinity between the data and the logistic growth model in the theory of industrial ecology. As is manifested in the test, the change of all the three variables can fit the logistic model well, and the significant level of both the equations and variables is high.

关 键 词：产业生态 逻辑斯蒂增长模型 人口数量 GDP总量 人均GDP 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]