China’’s Macroeconomic Situation in 2013 with Predictions and Policy Recommendations for the Next Five Years  

作　　者：李扬 张平 张晓晶 汪红驹 

机构地区：[1]Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) [2]Institute of Economics of CASS

出　　处：《China Economist》2013年第4期4-13,共10页中国经济学人（英文版）

摘　　要：China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. In the next 5-10 years, the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end, and China＇s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by a structural growth deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7%-8% per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013-2017, a 7% annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate, China＇s macroeconomic objectives for the next 5-10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.

关 键 词：structural growth deceleration supply management stable growth of higherefficiency 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]