输电网络危机事件动态演化模型  

Dynamic Evolution of Crises in Transmission Network

作　　者：何冰[1,2] 季建华[1] 刘新平[2] 侯晓明[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052 [2]上海市电力公司检修公司,上海200063

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2013年第13期219-222,共4页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“应急运作管理和鲁棒计划”(70732003);国家电网公司总部直管项目“输电网络智能化反外损监控技术深化研究”(52095012008P)

摘　　要：近年来国内外电力系统中大规模相继故障的频频发生,造成了重大的经济损失和社会影响,引起了电力业界和学者对电力系统安全运营问题的高度关注,促使人们理解和分析大停电和连锁故障传播机理。基于传染病模型中SEI模型的建模思想建立非线性微分方程组,探讨输电网络中危机事件动态演化特征,利用Routh-Hur-witz理论对模型进行稳定性分析,通过系统模拟仿真进一步说明输电网络灾害蔓延机理。Major power outages are frequent in recent years, which bring about bad social effects and gross economic loses in the world. The resuh is carefully noted by managers and scholars, causing the study on the mechanisms of large - scale blackout by cascading failures in transmission system. The paper proposes related nonlinear differential equations based on SEI epidemic model in describing the dynamic evolving nature of crisis in transmission network, analyzes the solutions by the theory of Routh - Hurwitz and investigates the mechanism of the crises spread in transmission network clearly by computer simulation.

关 键 词：输电网络 危机事件 动态演化 模型 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]