江苏省病毒性乙型肝炎流行趋势GIS空间分析  

Study on the Spatial Distribution of Hepatitis B Prevalence Based on Geographic Information System in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：张嘉成[1] 鲍倡俊[2] 刘文东[2] 胡建利[2] 梁祁[2] 汤奋扬[2] 彭志行[1] 周明浩[2] 沈洪兵[1] 陈峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,210029 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2013年第3期351-353,356,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：“十二五”国家科技重大专项(2011ZX10004-902);江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK2010079);江苏省高校重点学科建设专项;江苏省科教兴卫工程(ZX201109)

摘　　要：目的探讨江苏省2003-2009年乙肝疫情空间分布规律,分析影响乙肝流行的因素,为乙肝的预防和控制提供理论依据。方法建立江苏省2003-2009年乙肝发病数据库,应用GIS对乙肝疫情进行空间自相关分析、时空聚类分析及趋势面分析。结果全局自相关结果显示从整体研究区域来看江苏省乙肝发病呈集聚性分布;乙肝高发地区集聚于中部及西南部地区,其中2004-2006年乙肝疫情以南京市为中心,包含28个县区,呈高度聚集;建立乙肝发病趋势面分析图,2003-2009年江苏省乙肝发病在东西方向呈微弱的倒U形分布趋势,而从南向北方向呈缓慢下降趋势。结论江苏省乙肝发病有明显的地域分布规律,应根据乙肝发病空间分布特点,制定相应的防治措施。Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of hepatitis B prevalence in Jiangsu province from 2003 to 2009, and to de- scribe its influencing factors. Methods A database was established by collecting the information of hepatitis B incidents in Jiangsu province dur- ing the year of 2003 to 2009. Depending on GIS, spatial autocorrelation a- nalysis, space-time clustering analysis and trend surface analysis were used to study the hepatitis B prevalence. Results Results from the global Mo- ran＇ s I tests for Jiangsu province related to the hepatitis B were statistically significant and indicated spatial heterogeneity. Hepatitis B epidemics mainly occurred in the center and the southwest districts of Jiangsu province. The highly endemic areas appeared during the year of 2004 to 2006, and includ- ed 28 countries with Nanjing as its center. A trend surface was established for hepatitis B incidence in Jiangsu province,it indicated that the prevalence was more severe in the middle parts, and then decreased from south to north,but the trend was not obvious. Contusion The hepatitis B preva- lence is obviously distributed geographically in Jiangsu province. According to the distributive characters, effective measures should be taken to control it properly.

关 键 词：乙型肝炎 地理信息系统 空间自相关分析 时空聚类分析 趋势面分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]