TPP与中日韩FTA经济影响的GTAP模拟分析  

GTAP Simulation Analysis of the Economic Effects of TPP and China-Japan-ROK FTA

作　　者：杨立强[1] 鲁淑[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院中国外经贸研究室 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2013年第4期39-47,128,共9页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"我国新一轮对外开放的战略布局;主要目标与政策选择研究"(11&ZD007);对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新项目"TPP的构建对亚太地区政治经济格局的影响--给予全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)"(A2012023)

摘　　要：当前围绕TPP及中日韩FTA的两大谈判已经成为亚太地区区域经济一体化的核心议题。将中国排除在外的TPP有可能人为地撕裂原有的亚太经济联系尤其是以中日韩为核心的东亚区域经济联系,造成亚太经济的"阵营化"以至导致经济"冷战"时代的到来。GTAP模拟结果表明:在不加入TPP的情况下,促成中日韩FTA就成了中国应对TPP和改善自身宏观经济指标的主要途径。因此中国要以"立足周边,重点突破,借力打力,另起炉灶,重塑规则"为指导应对当前亚太区域经济一体化的挑战。Nowadays,the U.S.-leading Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and FTA among China,Japan,and Republic of Korea(CJK FTA) are regarded as the core subject for the development of the economic integration in Asian-Pacific region.However,TPP without China may weaken or harm the close economic ties between Asian-Pacific economies,especially the economic connections among China,Japan and ROK.As a result,economies in East Asia may be broken into some blocks,and even the economic 'Cold War' era may emerge.In fact,GTAP simulation result also shows that CJK FTA is an important choice for China to deal with the challenges from TPP agreement.We suggest that China should adopt the following principles: neighbors first;fo-cusing on CJK FTA;use of domino effect;cooperation with BRICS;restructuring rules.

关 键 词：TPP 中日韩FTA GTAP模型 国际区域经济一体化 可计算一般均衡 东亚经济合作 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]