基于BOT融资模式的公共租赁房建设盈亏预测研究  

Research of public rental housing construction profit and loss forecast based on BOT financing mode

作　　者：吴慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学工商管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《特区经济》2013年第6期181-183,共3页Special Zone Economy

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部软科学研究项目(214)

摘　　要：当前,地方政府对保障房建设的财政资金稳定性不足,比重偏低,虽然进行了吸引民间资金参建保障房的新模式尝试,但是面对项目亏损的风险,民间资本介入意愿低。为了预测在公共租赁房建设中的盈亏,本文采用BOT融资模式,建立了公租房建设中的融资数学模型,以浙江省教育发展中心拟建设的高校人才公租房项目为例,分析与公租房工程有关的各种确定性和不确定性影响因素,给出了不同贷款利率下投资回收期曲线,可应用于实际工程的投资盈亏预测,为降低民间资本投入保障房建设的风险提供一些理论依据。At present,the stability of the local government funding for security housing is not sufficient and low proportion,although has carried on the new mode to attract the private fund,facing to the risk of loss in the project,the willing of getting involved is low.In order to predict the profit and loss in the public rental construction,the paper adopted the BOT financing pattern,established the mathematical model of public rental housing construction financing,taking the project of education development center of ZheJiang to qualified teachers in universities as an example.Analysis the all related kinds of certainty and uncertainty factors,and supply the curves of under the different loan interest rate＇s payback,which could be used to the real construction,providing some theoretical basis for decline the risk of the private capital invested into affordable housing construction.

关 键 词：公共租赁房建设 BOT融资模式 影响因素 盈亏预测 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F224