湖沼型血吸虫病流行区高危传播环境快速评估体系的构建和应用Ⅰ应用德尔菲法建立指标体系  

Establishment and application of rapid assessment system of environment with high transmission risk of schistosomiasis in marshland and lake regions Ⅰ Establishment of an index system with Delphi method

作　　者：曹淳力[1] 徐俊芳[1,2] 许静[1] 鲍子平[1] 贾铁武[1] 余晴[1] 朱蓉[1] 党辉[1] 张利娟[1] 祝红庆[1] 李石柱[1] 郭家钢[1] 周晓农[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,世界卫生组织疟疾,血吸虫病和丝虫病合作中心,上海200025 [2]湖北省荆门市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2013年第3期232-236,共5页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

基　　金：国家重大科技专项(2008ZX10004-11);上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划;上海市卫生局科研计划

摘　　要：目的建立湖沼型血吸虫病流行区高危传播环境快速评估的指标体系。方法通过文献法初步构建湖沼型血吸虫病流行区高危传播环境快速评估的备选指标,应用两轮德尔菲法对备选指标进行筛选并确定指标体系,并对专家的熟悉程度和权威程度以及各指标的权重进行评价。结果共制定一级指标3项,分别是家畜疫情、人群病情和螺情,其中家畜疫情的权重最高,为0.68。共制定二级指标16项,其中野粪阳性率(0.09)和家畜感染率(0.09)、人群感染率(0.07)和急性血吸虫感染例数(0.07)、感染螺密度(0.07)和感染螺面积(0.07)的组合权重最高。一级指标专家熟悉程度系数为0.79～0.85,权威程度系数为0.88～0.91;二级指标专家熟悉程度系数为0.68～0.86,权威系数为0.77～0.91。结论初步建立湖沼型血吸虫病流行区高危传播环境快速评估指标体系,该指标体系可对流行区人、畜和钉螺关键疫情指标进行评估,以掌握调查地的疫情状况。Objective To establish an index system for rapid assessment of environment with high transmission risk of schis tosomiasis in marshland and lake regions.Methods The alternative indices were established preliminarily by the documentary method,and then the Delphi method was used two rounds to select the indices and establish the index system.The degree of famil iar and authority of the experts as well as the weights of all indices were assessed.Results A total of 3 primary indices namely morbidity in domestic animals,morbidity in humans and Oncomelania snail status were established,among which the weight of morbidity in domestic animals（0.68）was the highest.Totally 16 secondary indices were established,among which the combina tive weights of the positive rate of wild feces（0.09）,the infection rate of livestock（0.09）,the infection rate of humans（0.07）,the number of cases with acute schistosomiasis（0.07）,the area with infected snails（0.07）,and the density of infected snails（0.07）were the highest.The coefficients of familiar degree and authority degree of the experts of the primary indices were 0.790.85 and 0.88-0.91,and those of the secondary indices were 0.68-0.86 and 0.77-0.91,respectively.Conclusions The index system for rapid assessment of environment with high transmission risk of schistosomiasis in marshland and lake regions is established preliminarily.Using this system,we can assess the key endemic indices of humans,domestic animals and snails to un derstand the endemic situation in the investigated sites.

关 键 词：血吸虫病 传播 高危环境 德尔菲法 指标体系 湖沼型地区 

分 类 号：R532.21[医药卫生—内科学]