基于系统动力学的港口城市陆路集疏运系统  

System dynamics based port's landside consolidation system in port cities

作　　者：蒋永雷[1] 田志慧[1] 于滨[1] 吕靖[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2013年第2期65-68,共4页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51108053);教育部新世纪人才支持计划(NCET-12-0752);中央高校基本科研基金资助项目(2011ZC029);辽宁省社会科学规划基金资助项目(L10BJL029);教育部重大课题攻关项目(11JZD049)

摘　　要：在分析港口城市陆路集疏运系统结构及因果反馈关系基础上,采用系统动力学方法,将该系统分为经济、运输网络及交通投资3个子系统,并建立SD仿真模型.以天津市为实例进行模拟,分析不同陆路集疏运方式投资比例对港口城市陆路集疏运能力的影响.结果表明,单纯增加交通基础设施投资对于港口及港口城市经济发展带动效益不明显,需要考虑港城陆路集疏运系统的实际发展.Based on analysis of structure of the port＇ s landside consolidation system and its cause-and-effect relation, the port＇ s landside consolidation system is divided into three subsystems in- cluding economic subsystem, transportation networks subsystem and transport investment subsystem respectively using methodolo- gies of system dynamics, and the SD simulation model is built. Taking Tianjin city as an example, the effects of different invest- ment proportion of land consolidation modes on the port＇ s land- side consolidation capacity are analyzed. Results show that trans- port investment can not make obvious benefits on both the port and port city＇ s economy, except considering the actual situation of the port city＇ s landside consolidation system.

关 键 词：港口城市 陆路集疏运 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F253.4[经济管理—国民经济]