能耗强度与能源结构优化对内生经济增长影响研究  

Influence on the Optimal Endogenous Economic Growth from Energy Intensity and Structural Optimization of Energy Consumption

作　　者：公维凤[1,2,3] 王传会[1,4] 周德群[1,2] 曾昭鹏[4] 朱佩枫[5] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]南京航空航天大学能源软科学研究中心,江苏南京211106 [3]曲阜师范大学经济管理学院,山东日照276826 [4]临沂大学商学院,山东临沂276000 [5]南京中医药大学经贸管理学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2013年第3期115-121,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：教育部博士点基金资助项目(20123218110028);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71203081;71203100);教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(12YJCZH091);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(10CJGJ10);山东省自然科学基金项目"山东省生物质能源资源潜力与地理分布"(ZR2010DM017);山东省自然科学基金面上项目"三维企业边界模型与蓝色经济区龙头企业升级的产业定位研究"(ZR2010GM012)

摘　　要：本文在垂直创新模型框架下,将能耗强度和碳减排比例引入生产函数,将人们对气候变化的警惕意识引入效用函数,建立了一个动态的内生低碳经济增长模型。通过求解所建动态优化模型,找到了经济长期均衡增长的最优路径,讨论了能源强度和能源消费结构变化与经济均衡增长的相互关系,分析了各参数对经济最优增长路径的影响,比较了化石能源内部消费结构不变和逐年清洁两种情景下的经济最优增长路径的异同。长期来看,能源强度、二氧化碳减排速率与经济增长率有相互的负向线性关系,缩小反映化石能源内部消费结构的综合碳排放系数对经济增长有促进作用。非化石能源比例越高,低碳技术应用越广泛,研发成果对技术积累的贡献率越大,消费者对当前消费的偏好程度越小,人们对气候变化的警惕意识越强,则越有利于经济的低碳发展。In the framework of a vertical innovation model, energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement are both all put into the production function. Alert awareness towards climate change is put into utility function. A dynamic optimization model of the endogenous low-carbon economic growth is established. Through solving the dynamic optimization model, the optimal path of a long-term economic equilibrium growth is found. The interre- lationship of energy intensity, energy consumption structure, rate of carbon dioxide abatement and economic growth are all discussed. The influence of various parameters on path of the optimal economic growth is analyzed. Paths of the optimal economic growth are compared in two scenarios of the internal structure of fossil energy con- sumption. In the long term, energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement have mutual negative linear relationship with economic growth. Reducing the comprehensive coefficient of carbon emissions which reflects theinternal structure of fossil energy consumption could promote economic growth. Increasing the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption, widely using low carbon technology, improving the contribution of technolo- gy accumulation from research and development, reducing preference to the current consumption, and strengthe- ning awareness towards climate change would be beneficial to promoting low-carbon economic development.

关 键 词：管理科学与工程 经济可持续发展 动态优化模型 内生经济增长 能源消费结构 碳减排 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]