基于Delphi-AHP和加权集值统计的高校突发事件预警评估  

Pre Warning Assessment of Emergencies in Universities Based on Delphi-AHP And Weighted Set Valued Statistics

作　　者：周荣喜[1] 李守荣[1,2] 杨敏[2] 邱菀华[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2013年第3期146-153,共8页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871002;71171002;71271014);航空科学基金资助项目(2010ZG51);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(ZZ1017);北京化工大学学科建设基金资助项目(2010096);北京化工大学本科教育改革专项(A201208)

摘　　要：科学预防高校突发事件发生对维护高校乃至社会稳定具有重要意义。为建立和完善预警机制,提高应急管理能力,本文针对高校突发事件监测预警复杂性,提出一种预警评估新方法。该方法首先采用Delphi法建立预警评估的指标集,并将Delphi和AHP方法集成(Delphi AHP)来确定各指标权重;在预警评估阶段采用加权集值统计法(weighted set valued statistics,WSVS),避免了以往评价中采用点估计所带来的不准确性。最后,以学生公寓突发火灾事件为例表明,采用该模型确定预警等级并进行预警发布具有可行性与有效性。It is very important to scientifically prevent the emergencies in colleges and universities for maintaining the stability of the society. To establish and perfect the pre-warning mechanism and promote the ability of emer- gency management, a new method is developed in this paper to deal with the complexity of the pre-warning assessment for the emergencies in universities. We first establish the index system for the pre-warning assessment with the Delphi method, and then weigh these indexes by combination of Delphi and AHP methods. In an assess- ment phase, the weighted set-valued statistics（WSVS）is employed rather than the commonly used point estima- tion method, which is believed to bring inaccuracy. An application of our method for assessing the risk of a dor- mitory fire emergency is also shown in our paper. It is proved pre-warning level and releasing pre-warning signals. that the model is feasible and valid in setting the

关 键 词：群决策 预警评估 DELPHI AHP 加权集值统计 高校突发事件 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]