经济发展、政府激励约束与节能减排效率的门槛效应研究  

Study on the Threshold Effect of Development and the Government’s Economic Incentive and Restraint Mechanism for Energy-saving and Ejection-decreasing Efficiency

作　　者：余泳泽[1] 杜晓芬[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学江苏产业发展研究院,江苏南京210046 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第7期93-99,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题"全球金融危机对我国产业转移和产业升级的影响及对策研究"(编号:09JZD0018);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目;江苏高校青蓝工程项目资助

摘　　要：节能减排问题已经成为制约我国经济增长的一个重要问题。本文将非合意性产出(污染物)纳入投入和产出导向的DEA模型,计算了我国29个省市的节能减排潜力和效率,并考察了节能减排潜力的地区特征。结果显示,2003年到2009年我国年均节能潜力约8亿t标准煤,节能效率为0.67;年均COD减排潜力约为300万t,减排效率为0.393;年均二氧化硫减排潜力约为1 300万t,减排效率为0.345。借鉴环境库兹涅茨曲线的思路,本文提出了两个假设命题:(1)一个地区人均GDP只有越过一定的"门槛值"后,技术进步对节能减排的技术效应和产业结构优化升级对节能减排的结构效应才能够显著体现。人均收入与节能减排效率之间存在一个"U"型关系。(2)一个地区政府的激励约束机制只有超过一定的"门槛值"后,技术进步对节能减排的技术效应和产业结构优化升级对节能减排的结构效应才能够显著体现。在实证环节采用Hansen提出的"门限回归"的方法验证了以上两个假设命题。Energy-saving and emission reduction has become an important problem restricting China＇ s economic growth. This paper took account of the non-consensual output （pollutants） into the input and output-oriented DEA model, and calculated the potential and the efficiency of energy-saving and ejection-decreasing as well as the local differences by analyzing the samples of 29 provinces in China. The result shows that the energy-saving potential per year in China from 2003 to 2009 is about 80 billion tons of coal, and the efficiency of energy-saving is 0.67 ; the potential of annual COD ejection-decreasing is 3 million tons, and the efficiency is 0.393 ; the potential of annual SO2 ejection-decreasing is 13 million tons, and the efficiency is 0.345. Referring the idea of Environment Kuznets Curve, This paper put forwards two hypothetical propositions ： 1 ） The technological effect which the technological progress bears on the energy saving ＆ emission reduction and the structural effect which the industrial structure adjustment and upgrade bear on the same shall not be significantly embodied until and unless the per capita GDP in one particular area surpasses a certain ＂threshold value＂. There is a U-shaped relationship between per capita earnings and the efficiency of energy saving ＆ emission reduction. 2 ） The technological effect which the technological progress bears on the energy saving ＆ emission reduction and the structural effect which the industrial structure adjustment and upgrade bear on the same shall not be significantly embodied until and unless a local government＇ s incentive and restraint mechanism surpasses a certain ＂threshold value＂. The above-mentioned hypothetical propositions have been tested and verified by using during the positive analysis phase the ＂threshold regression method＂ advocated by Hansen in 2000.

关 键 词：激励约束机制 节能减排效率 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]