基于订正后的CI指数分析近50年干旱对山西省玉米产量的影响  

Impact of drought on maize yield of Shanxi Province during the past 50 years based on revised meteorological drought composite index

作　　者：徐玲玲[1] 王建林[1] 宋艳玲[2] 郑昌玲[1] 方利[3] 宋迎波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2013年第3期227-233,共7页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家行业专项"气候变化背景下农业气象灾害对我国农业生产影响的评估技术"(GYHY201106021)

摘　　要：利用1961—2010年山西省气象站逐日气温和降水资料计算出逐日综合气象干旱指数(CI);通过对比CI指数与临近农田站1992—2010年的土壤墒情观测资料,分区域和发育期订正了玉米发生干旱时的CI指数评判标准。同时结合近50年山西省玉米单产资料,采用线性回归法分区域构建了山西省玉米干旱减产定量评估模型。结果表明,玉米不同发育期发生干旱的CI指数评判标准与传统的气象干旱等级划分标准差异较大。以晋南区为例,玉米播种至出苗期、拔节至抽雄期、乳熟至成熟期发生干旱的CI指数评判标准为≤-1.2,出苗至拔节期为≤-1.3,抽雄至乳熟期为≤-0.9。山西省玉米全生育期干旱累积指数与气象影响产量显著正相关,相关系数分别达到0.9335(晋北区)、0.6929(晋中区)和0.8041(晋南区);不同区域玉米干旱减产定量评估模型模拟的近50年玉米产量变化与实际气象影响产量通过Pearson相关性显著性检验,能较为准确地评估玉米发生干旱时的产量损失。Daily meteorological drought composite indexes（CI） from 1961 to 2010 were calculated based on daily air temperature and precipitation data of observation stations in Shanxi Province.By comparison of CI with soil moisture status observation data from the near crop stations from 1992 to 2010,evaluation criterion of CI for maize in drought was revised according to the region and growth stages.Quantitative assessment model of maize drought losses in Shanxi province was also constructed based on the maize unit yield during the past 50 years.The results showed a significant discrepancy between evaluation criterion of CI for maize in drought and traditional classification of meteorological drought category was observed.For example,evaluation criterion of CI for maize in drought in Southern Shanxi was ≤-1.2 for stages from seeding to emergence,jointing to teaseling and milky maturity to full maturity,≤-1.3 for stage from emergence to jointing,and ≤-0.9 for stages from teaseling to milky maturity.Accumulative drought index of the whole growth stages and meteorologically influenced yield of maize were significantly positive correlated,with a coefficient of correlation of 0.9335 for Northern Shanxi,0.6929 for Middle Shanxi and 0.8041 for Southern Shanxi.By using quantitative assessment model of maize drought losses in Shanxi province,simulated yield and actual yield passed the Pearson significance test,and production loss of maize in drought can be assessed more accurately with these models.

关 键 词：综合气象干旱指数(CI) 气象干旱 玉米产量 山西省 

分 类 号：S165.27[农业科学—农业气象学] S513[农业科学—农业基础科学]