山东省小麦气象灾害风险评估模型群研发  

Research and Development of Weather Risk Assessment Model Group for Wheat in Shandong Province

作　　者：王风云[1] 封文杰[1] 刘淑云[1] 王志诚[2] 梅林[1] 唐研[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省农业科学院科技信息工程技术研究中心,济南250100 [2]山东省农业科学院科技产业处,济南250100

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第20期197-204,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划"农村农业信息化关键技术集成与示范"(2011BAD21B06);山东省科技发展计划"温室环境信息无线监控关键技术研发;集成与示范"(2011GGC02035);山东省科技发展计划"山东冬小麦干旱预警关键技术研究与应用"(2012GNC11019)

摘　　要：为了探寻影响山东省小麦生产的气象风险因子,并探索小麦相对气象产量与气象致灾风险因子的关系,通过采集山东省典型小麦生态区120个监测网点,收集1980—2009年的小麦产量与气候致灾风险数据,采用统计分析方法,对导致小麦减产的气象风险因子以及相对气象产量进行相关和回归分析,确立了导致山东省小麦冷冻害、干旱和干热风等灾害的气象风险因子,建立了山东省小麦气象灾害风险评估模型群,并利用计算机技术进行系统开发,对山东省小麦生产当中遇到的气象因子进行分析,预测是否存在气象灾害,并进行风险评估。该系统为政府部门指导农业生产和制定农业保险费率、保费补贴、粮食最低保护价、农业直补标准等政策提供决策依据。To find out the weather risk factors that affect the wheat production in Shandong Province, and explore the relationship between the relative weather production and weather risk factors of wheat, the data of wheat yield and weather risk data from 1980 to 2009 on 120 monitoring stations in typical wheat ecological regions were collected. The statistical analysis method was used to carry out the correlation and regression analysis on the weather factors that lead to wheat yield reduction and the relative weather yield to confirm the factors that lead to the cold and frozen, drought and dry-hot wind etc disasters. The weather risk assessment model group of wheat in Shandong Province was built, and the system was realized by computer. The system analyzed the weather factors occurred during wheat producing, predicted whether there were weather disasters and estimate the risk. The system provided the government with decision-making basis to guide the agriculture production and formulate agricultural insurance rate, insurance subsidy, the lowest protective price of grain and the direct subsidy standard etc.

关 键 词：小麦 气象产量 冷冻害 干旱 干热风 模型群 

分 类 号：S-3[农业科学] S24