安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究  

RISK REGIONALIZATION OF HAIL DISASTER FOR COTTON OF ANHUI PROVINCE

作　　者：尹圆圆[1,2] 赵金涛[3] 王静爱[1,2,4] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学区域地理重点实验室,北京100875 [3]廊坊师范学院管理学院,河北廊坊065000 [4]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2013年第7期958-964,共7页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划"全球环境风险与气候灾害的宏观格局"(2012CB955403-1);公益性行业(气象)科研专项"全球变化背景下中国气象灾害风险区划研究"(GYHY200906019)

摘　　要：雹灾风险区划是雹灾风险研究的重要内容,对制定区域性的雹灾防灾减灾对策具有指导意义。而雹灾风险评价是开展雹灾风险区划的前提和基础。以我国雹灾频发区——安徽省为例,选择其主要经济作物棉花为承灾体,基于区域灾害系统理论和棉花雹灾风险区划数据库,在"E-H-V-R"四维评价基础上,提出了多技术手段和多方法相结合的"3(E、H、V)+1(R)"维的雹灾风险区划方法,编制了安徽省棉花雹灾风险图,将其划分为淮北平原区、江淮平原丘陵区和皖南山区3个一级区,10个二级区和19个三级区,为安徽省棉花雹灾风险管理和防灾减灾工作的开展提供科学依据,同时为其他区域和其他灾害风险区划研究提供方法和技术参考。As an important part of hail disaster risk research,regionalization of hail disaster has a significant effect for formulating regional countermeasure on disaster mitigation and prevention. Assessment of hail disaster risk is the precondition and foundation of the hail disaster risks regionalization. Anhui Province where hail disasters are frequent was taken as an example. In this province hail disasters frequently occur April to September, and are coincident to main growing stages of cotton, which is one of the main economic crops in this province. Although its short duration time, small influence scope and strong abruptness, hail poses a grave threat to cotton farming. This influence mainly manifests in the following five aspects： breaking leaves and stem of cotton, knocking cotton bolls, battering growing point and causing total destruction. Therefore,it is very important to study the influence of hail disaster to cotton and to map the zonation of risk for secure production of cotton. Based on the regional disaster system theory and hail disaster risk assessment database of cotton, risk analysis is taken and atlas of risk assessment was compiled from four dimensions respectively--sensibility of environment, hazard of hail, vulnerability of cotton and risk of hail. Among them,with hail disaster magnitude index （H） and loss rate of cotton （L） ,which are obtained with the method of statistical inference and comprehensive index measure, hail disaster risk of cotton was carried out based on constructed model for calculating annual loss rate of cotton hail： . Then cotton hail risk zoning of Anhui Province was complete with multiimethod, such as GIS technology,method of ＂top-down＂ and ＂bottom-up＂, cluster analysis and reference of remote sensing images. Zoning indexes include assessment result of disaster-forming environment sensibility, topography and landform, frequency of hail failing, proportion of cotton planting, regionalization result of single factor,and result of risk assess

关 键 词：棉花雹灾 敏感性 危险性 脆弱性 风险区划 安徽省 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]