国有经济效率、增长目标硬约束与货币政策超调  

The Efficiency of State-owned Economy,Economic Growth Target Constraint and Monetary Policy Overshoot

作　　者：马草原[1] 李成[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2013年第7期76-89,160,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2012M521751);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71203175);西安交通大学新教师科研支持计划的资助

摘　　要：基于对中国特殊经济制度环境和宏观调控体系的分析,本文揭示了货币政策超调现象的形成机理。研究发现,货币政策调控对国有经济渠道的高度依赖,通过改变国有投资比重引发经济效率变化,导致货币政策"投资结构效应"部分抵消了"投资总量效应",使政策当局在"求均衡"和"保增长"之间陷入两难困境。在经济增长目标硬约束下,货币政策必然加大"投资总量效应"以抵补"投资结构效应"对政策效果的削弱,货币政策超调在所难免。消除货币政策超调,避免由于矫枉过正的反周期调控引发经济波动,必须纠正货币政策调控对国有经济渠道的过度依赖,注重经济效率变化对政策效果的反馈影响,适当淡化经济增长目标硬约束,突出结构优化和均衡发展在调控目标中的重要性。Based on the particular economic environment and macro-control system in China, this paper reveals the formation mechanism of monetary policy overshoot. Excessive dependence on the state-owned economy in macro-control changes the proportion of state-owned investment and economic efficiency, this partially weakens the effects of monetary policy through ＂investment structure effect＂. Under the hard constraint on the economic growth target, as compensation for the loss of efficiency, monetary policy overshoot is inevitable. In order to eliminate the overshoot of monetary policy, avoid economic fluctuations caused by monetary policy, we have to correct excessive dependence on the state-owned economy in macro-control, pay attention to feedback of economic efficiency to the monetary policy effects. Macro-control should highlight the importance of structure optimization and economic equilibrium rather than economic growth target.

关 键 词：国有投资 经济效率 增长目标约束 货币政策超调 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F822.0