中国农产品出口中亚国家的增长成因:基于CMS模型的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on the Causes of Growth of Chinese Agricultural Exports to Central Asian Countries:Based on the CMS Model

作　　者：夏咏[1] 马惠兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《世界农业》2013年第7期57-62,175-176,共6页World Agriculture

基　　金：新疆教育厅高校研重点项目(XJEDU2011I25);国家社科基金项目(11BJY099)

摘　　要：本文在分析中国农产品对中亚国家出口品种结构和市场结构的基础上,运用二阶分解的恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)对中国农产品出口中亚国家的增长成因进行实证分析。结果表明,中国农产品对中亚国家出口增长可以看成是结构效应推动型,水产品出口增长属于竞争力效应推动型,大宗农产品、畜产品、园艺产品、饮料及烟草的出口增长均属于增长效应推动型。Based on the analysis of varieties and market structures of Chinese agricultural exports to Central Asian countries,this paper analyze causes empirically with the second-order decomposition constant market share model.This paper shows 3 results which are,firstly,the export growth of Chinese agricultural products to Central Asian countries can be seen as result ofstructural effects-driven.Secondly,the aquatic products export growth is driven by competitive effect and thirdly,the export growth of the bulk agricultural products,animal products,horticulturalproducts,beverages and tobacco belong to the drive of growtheffects.

关 键 词：中国 中亚国家 农产品 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62F224