耐用消费品需求增长周期与经济增长关联度:1978～2012年  

Growth Cycle of Consumer Durables Demand and Economic Growth Correlation:1978～2012

作　　者：李建伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心社会发展研究部,北京100010

出　　处：《改革》2013年第7期31-42,共12页Reform

摘　　要：1978-2012年,我国彩电、电冰箱、洗衣机和家庭乘用车实际需求增长周期的平均波长分别为6年、6.2年、8年和12年。1978年以后我国耐用消费品需求重点从以家用电器为主逐步转向以家庭乘用车为主,经济增长周期的波长也从第一个周期的6年延长到第三个周期的15年。2007年以后耐用消费品实际需求先后进入周期性下降期,加上出口大幅度下降,GDP增速由此进入中长期回调阶段。未来国内城乡居民家用电器的需求将以更新需求和创新需求为主,乘用车需求已过初次需求的加速增长期,但以高收入家庭更新需求和中等收入家庭初次需求为主的乘用车实际需求仍将快速增长。From 1978 to 2012, the average wavelength of actual demand growth cycle of China＇s color TV, refrigerator, washing machine and family car was 6 years, 6.2 years, 8 years and 12 years. After 1978, China＇s consumer durables demand focus away from the household appliances gradually to the family car, and the wavelength of growth cycle was also extended from the first cycle of 6 years to third cycle of 15 years. After 2007, the actual consumer durables demand has entered into a cyclical decline in tandem, coupled with the decline in export growth significantly, and then GDP growth entered into medium and long-term callback phase. The future of domestic needs of urban and rural residents household appliances will mainly be updating demand and innovating demand. The demand of passenger cars has passed the accelerate growth of first demand, but the actual demand of passenger cars, mainly updating demand of high income families and first demand of middle-income families, will grow rapidly.

关 键 词：耐用消费品 经济增长周期 经济增长规律 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]