基于平滑指数仿真优化的装甲装备器材消耗预测  

Forecasting Research for Maintenance Support Materials of Armored Equipments Based on Simulation Optimization of Eoefficient of Exponential Smoothing Method

作　　者：曹军海[1] 杜海东[1] 陈小龙[1] 王琴琴 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院技术保障工程系 [2]济南军区72726部队

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2013年第8期1961-1965,共5页Journal of System Simulation

摘　　要：准确地预测装备备件需求是合理有效进行各项保障工作的基础,通过分析现有常用的器材消耗预测方法,针对装甲装备维修保障的特点,假设在已收集某类备件消耗数据的基础上,选取基于时间序列的指数平滑法对装甲装备维修保障器材消耗预测进行了研究。同时,针对平滑指数的选取问题,以最小预测方差为优化目标,构建了基于Anylogic的仿真优化模型,并最后通过具体案例应用,对计算方法进一步的说明和检验,结果反映出:当器材消耗量平稳变化时,此法具有较高的准确度;当器材消耗量变化较大时,预测结果存在较大偏差。Exact material forecast is the base of effective material support.The common forecasting methods for wastage of materials was firstly analyzed,and then the exponential smoothing method on the foundation of timing sequence theory was chosen according to the characteristics of armored equipment support to forecast the material wastage of armored equipments based on recorded history data.The simulation experiment based on Anylogic simulation software was used to confirm the coefficient of exponential smoothing method,and further demonstration was given and the calculation model was proofed through particular case applying finally.The result has show two situations,when the wastage of material changes steady,the method could forecast the result exactly;but when on the other hand,if the number changes great,there is a deviation existing in the forecast result.

关 键 词：器材 预测 时间序列 指数平滑 仿真 

分 类 号：E234[军事—军事理论]