城市交通能耗动态情景组合分解模型  

Dynamic situation combination decomposition model of urban traffic energy consumption

作　　者：孙启鹏[1] 贾诗炜[2] 朱磊[1] 徐成[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]北京邮电大学理学院,北京100876

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2013年第3期94-100,共7页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50808022);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(10YJC630216)

摘　　要：分析了现有的城市交通结构,以机动车保有量、百公里油耗与年行驶里程为影响因素,引入影响因素的变化率作为参数,运用迪氏指数分解模型,建立了城市交通能耗动态情景组合分解模型。根据3个影响因素的变化情况,设置了12种情景组合模式,分析了不同情景组合模式下的城市交通能耗变化趋势。分析结果表明:最大总能耗增量为174.92万吨标准煤,3个影响因素的能耗贡献率分别为91.79%、-9.57%、17.78%,最小总能耗增量为55.06万吨标准煤,3个影响因素的能耗贡献率分别为128.10%、-52.34%、24.24%;按机动车保有量增速将12种情景模式分为低速增长、中速增长、高速增长3类方案,3类方案能耗增量的最大值分别为87.02、130.97、174.92万吨标准煤,最小值分别为55.06、94.08、134.55万吨标准煤。The existing urban traffic structure was analyzed. The motor vehicle population, 100- kilometer fuel consumption and annual driving distance were taken as influence factors, the rate of influence factor was introduced as parameter, and the dynamic situation combination decomposition model of urban traffic energy consumption was set up by using logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） model. Based on the change conditions of 3 influence factors, 12 situation combination modes were designed, and the change trends of urban traffic energy consumption under different situation combination modes were analyzed. Analysis result shows that the maximum increase amount of total energy consumption is 1. 749 2 ×10^6 t standard coal, the energy consumption rates of 3 influence factors are 91.79%, -9. 57%, 17.78% respectively. The minimum increase amount of total energy consumption is 5. 506 ×10^5 t standard coal, the energy consumption rates of 3 influence factors are 128.10%, --52.34%, 24.24% respectively. Based on the increase speed of motor vehicle population, the 12 situation combination modes can be divided into 3 schemes such as low-speed increase scheme, middle-speed increase scheme and high-speed increase scheme. The maximum increase amounts of energy consumption for 3 schemes are 8. 702×10^5, 1. 309 7 ×10^6, 1. 749 2 ×10^6 t standard coal, the minimum values are5. 506×10^5, 9. 408×10^5, 1. 345 5×10^6 t standard coal. 3 tabs, 5 figs, 15 refs.

关 键 词：城市交通能耗 LMDI模型 动态情景组合 能耗贡献 机动车保有量 百公里油耗 年行驶里程 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]