基于灰色Verhulst和EVM模型的项目进度—成本绩效预测研究  

Project Time-cost Performance Prediction Based on Grey Verhulst and EVM Model

作　　者：欧阳红祥[1] 李欣[2] 陈伟伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京210098 [2]中国石化管道南京输油处,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2013年第3期71-75,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71102072)

摘　　要：传统挣值管理以进度和成本绩效指数为基础进行完工成本预测,在项目实施的早期其预测值与实际数据会存在较大偏差。因此,项目实施的早期,项目管理团队应侧重对进度和成本绩效趋势进行短期预测。在介绍挣值管理和灰色Verhulst模型的基础上,提出采用Verhulst模型对项目的实际成本和挣值进行预测,并计算进度和成本偏差,通过比较借此发现进度和成本绩效的发展趋势。最后结合具体案例详细介绍了建立灰色Verhulst模型以及利用此模型进行预测的步骤。案例表明该方法是可行和有效的。The traditional Earned Value Management is used to forecast the project complete cost based on the duration and cost performance indexes,and there could be large variance between the predicted value and the actual.This paper puts forward that in early stage of project implementation,project management team should focus on making a short-term prediction about the trend of time and cost performance.On the basis of introducing the principle of Earned Value Management and grey Verhulst model,the method of Verhulst model is proposed to predict the actual cost and earned value.So the variance between time and cost could be calculated.And then the developing trend of time and cost performance can be got.In the last section,combined with the specific case,the establishment of grey Verhulst model and the steps for forecasting are both introduced detailed.The case finally shows that the method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：灰色VERHULST模型 挣值管理 进度 成本绩效 预测 

分 类 号：TU723[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]