《京都议定书》第二承诺期与第一承诺期的差异辨析  

Discrimination between the First and Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol

作　　者：高翔[1] 王文涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所 [2]科技部中国21世纪议程管理中心

出　　处：《国际展望》2013年第4期27-41,139-140,共15页Global Review

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划"气候变化谈判综合问题的关键技术研究"(课题编号:2012BAC20B02);复旦-丁铎尔中心生态环境与人文社科交叉研究项目资助

摘　　要：2012年底的联合国气候变化谈判多哈会议确立了《京都议定书》第二承诺期,反映了南北两大阵营以及欧盟、"伞形集团"和发展中国家三股力量之间长达八年谈判的博弈结果。多哈会议所确立的议定书第二承诺期与第一承诺期存在重大不同,第二承诺期在提高减排力度、灵活机制及其适用资格、排放许可分配方式等方面做出了更为严格的规定,有利于确保减排的质量。然而第二承诺期与《联合国气候变化框架公约》在减排目标的内涵和核算方式上不统一,这为附件一和非附件一缔约方在"德班平台"下提出2020年后的减缓目标和减排进展衡量机制的安排造成了困难;同时,第二承诺期在法律效力上的不确定性,也可能导致其发展成为以国内法律保障为基础的国际自愿减排体系,进而为后续谈判和机制安排带来了重大的不确定性。The Second Commitment Period(SCP) of the Kyoto Protocol was established in UNFCCC Doha negotiation at the end of 2012,which reflects the 8-year gaming between the North and the South,as well as among European Union,the Umbrella Group and the developing countries.The SCP sets up more stringent provisions on the level of emission reduction ambition,the operation of flexible mechanisms as well as the eligibility to that,and the allocation of assigned amount units,which would improve the emission reduction efforts.However,there is inconsistency between the mitigation targets under the SCP of Kyoto Protocol and those under the Convention;there is also uncertainty as to when the SCP could enter into force,which might result in an international voluntary mitigation framework in essence of the SCP,with domestic legislations,instead of international legally binding framework.These would raise the uncertainties of future UNFCCC negotiations and international climate change framework arrangements.

关 键 词：《京都议定书》 第二承诺期 谈判 法律性质 机制安排 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]