山西省农机购置补贴资金需求预测研究  

The prediction of farm machinery purchase subsidies funding requiements in Shanxi

作　　者：冯彩霞 王天水 

机构地区：[1]f山西省农业机械化科学研究院,太原市030031

出　　处：《中国农机化学报》2013年第4期45-48,共4页Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization

基　　金：山西省软科学研究计划项目(2009041030―01)--山西省农机购置补贴中长期政策研究

摘　　要：采用Gompertz Curve(龚珀兹)时序预测及最小二乘法估算方法 ,构建了山西省农业机械总动力和GDP与农业机械总动力回归预测模型;对农业机械总动力、实现GDP发展目标和需求农业机械动力总量之间的关系进行了预测研究,并对农业机械投入与农业机械总动力增长进行了实证分析,提出了"十二五"期间山西省农机购置补贴资金年需求量,为国家和省级部门制定农机购置补贴政策提供科学依据和决策参考。This paper establishes the model of the forecast for farm machinery total power in Shanxi Province,and the relationship model between total power and GDP by Gompertz curve temporal prediction model and least square estimate method.It quantitative forecast and research on the amount of farm machinery power,the relationship between development goals of GDP and power demand of farm machinery.It makes the empirical analysis for investment and total dynamic growth of farm machinery,gets years total demand of farm machinery perchase subsides during the twelfth five-year plan in Shanxi Province,provides the scientific basis and guidelines for the decision the farm machinery purchase subside policy.

关 键 词：农机购置补贴 资金需求 预测 

分 类 号：S231[农业科学—农业机械化工程]