论新兴大国崛起的理论准备  

The Rise of Emerging Powers and Theoretical Support

作　　者：林跃勤[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学杂志社

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2013年第7期1-8,34,共9页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标课题"提高宏观调控水平与保持经济平稳较快发展研究"(09&ZD017);中国社会科学杂志社重点课题"新兴大国合作机制研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：一个后发国家追赶乃至超越先发大国强国的崛起过程,从来都不是件轻而易举的事情。纵观近几个世纪以来的世界发展,大国崛起不乏成功案例,但失败概率更高。原因自然不一而足,但理论准备对崛起战略与政策指导不足无疑是失败重要原因之一。在经济全球化和区域一体化加速,国家间的竞合更为复杂诡异的当代,后发新兴国家对先发大国强国的赶超面临更多变数和困惑。因而,需要更好地探索崛起科学规律,以有效应对各种崛起中的风险与挑战。本文在回顾理论准备对于大国崛起的国际历史经验基础上,分析理论准备对于新兴大国的赶超意义,探讨强化理论准备、促进成功崛起的基本方向。It has never been easy for a newly emerging power to catch up with or surpass established powers. While in recent centuries a few emerging powers have risen to the ranks of their es- tablished counterparts, these cases certainly remain the exception rather than the norm. In the con- temporary geopolitical environment of accelerating economic globalization and regional integration and increasingly intricate patterns of international competition, emerging powers face a much more uncertain and nebulous path forward in the catching up process. Given this challenging milieu, an explo- ration of the empirically codifiable laws of emerging power development is necessary to put forth a framework for addressing the various risks and challenges therein. Based on examination of the rise of the established powers in global history, this paper attempts to analyze the significance of theoretical preparation for the rise of emerging powers and discusses particularly how emerging powers today may learn from historical examples in formulating and bolstering their own theoretical preparation to rise successfully.

关 键 词：理论准备 新兴大国 大国崛起 

分 类 号：F110[经济管理—国际贸易]