基于多零售商和不确定需求的制造商退货政策研究  

Manufacturer’s Returns Policies Based on Multi Retailers and Demand Uncertainty

作　　者：张福利[1] 施建军[2] 徐小林[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京审计学院管理学院,江苏南京211815 [2]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《预测》2013年第4期52-57,共6页Forecasting

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70872046);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(12YJA630183);江苏教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金资助项目(2010SJB630045);江苏省高校"青蓝工程"资助项目

摘　　要：本文基于单一制造商和两个零售商构成的两级供应链和不确定需求,在单位退货价格是内生的情形下,研究了制造商的退货政策。结果表明,当市场波动幅度较大且市场需求为高需求的可能性较大时,部分退货政策是制造商的最优退货政策;当市场波动幅度较大且市场需求为低需求的可能性较大,或者市场波动幅度较小时,不接受退货和部分退货政策都是制造商的最优退货政策,特别,当市场波动幅度不是太小且市场需求为低需求的可能性很大,或者市场波动幅度太小时,完全退货政策也是制造商的最优退货政策。The manufacturer＇s returns policies is discussed based on a two-tier supply chain comprising a single manufacturer and two retailers when demand is uncertain and unit returns price is endogenetic. It shows that, if both the range of market fluctuation and the probability of market demand being high are all bigger, partial returns policy is the manu- facturer＇ s optimal returns policy. If both the range of market fluctuation and the probability of market demand being low are all bigger, or the scope of market fluctuation is smaller, no returns policy and partial returns policy are all the manu- facturer＇ s optimal returns policy. Besides, If the range of market fluctuation is not too small and the probability of market demand being low is very big, or the range of market fluctuation is very small, full returns policy is also the manufacturer＇s optima｜ returns policy.

关 键 词：完全退货政策 部分退货政策 需求不确定性 供应链 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]