东北冬季气温年际、年代际影响因子的比较  

The Comparison of Factors on Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the Winter Temperature in Northeast China

作　　者：房一禾[1] 周放[2] 张运福[1] 赵梓淇[3] 沈秋宇 王乙舒 王春学[6] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [4]辽宁省气象局,辽宁沈阳110016 [5]锦州市义县气象局,辽宁锦州121100 [6]四川省气候中心,四川成都610000

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第7期844-850,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项"近百年全球陆地气候变化监测技术与应用"(GYHY201206012)资助

摘　　要：采用1961-2012年东北三省53站月平均气温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料。分析东北冬季气温变化特征。利用SVD法得出影响东北冬季气温的主要因子。分别从年际和年代际尺度上,用偏相关法分析了各因子对东北冬季气温独立的影响。结果表明：东北冬季气温以全区一致异常为主,气温显著上升;东北冬季气温主要影响因子是北极涛动、西伯利亚高压和东亚冬季风;年际尺度上,北极涛动和东亚冬季风适合描述东北中、北部的冬季气温。西伯利亚高压与东北南部冬季气温关系密切;年代际尺度上,北极涛动适合描述东北冬季气温。Based on the monthly mean temperature data of 53 observational stations in the three provinces of northeast China in 1961-2012 and NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height,500 hPa wind velocity field,and sea level pressure filed,the variation characteristics of winter temperature in the northeast China at both interannual and interdecadal time scales were analyzed.By using the Singular Value Decomposition technology,we find three main influential factors of winter temperature in the northeast China.The independent effects of different influential factors on winter temperature in the northeast China were studied by using partial correlation analysis method at both interannual and interdecadal scales.Results show that： Both at inter-annual and interdecadal scales’variations,the first mode’s spatial vector of EOF analysis on winter temperature in the northeast China show a consistent variation characteristic all over northeast China,and the first mode’s time coefficient exists a significant growing trend.In addition,the Singular Value Decomposition technology’s consequence show that,in the atmospheric shell,the Arctic Oscillation,the Siberian high and the East Asian winter monsoon have close relationship with the winter temperature in the northeast China.So they are the three main influential factors on winter temperature in the northeast China.Partial correlation analysis method’s result tell us that,at interannual scale’s variations,the Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon have close relationship with the winter temperature in the central part and northern part of northeast China.So the Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon may be more suitable for describing the winter temperature in central part and northern part of northeast China.The Siberian high may be more suitable for describing the winter temperature in southern part of northeast China.But at interdecadal scale’s variations,the relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and th

关 键 词：东北 冬季气温 年际 年代际 偏相关系数 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]