信阳市传染病自动预警系统运行情况  

Operation status of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System in Xinyang City

作　　者：胡艳[1] 黄河秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省信阳市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科,464000

出　　处：《职业与健康》2013年第14期1814-1815,共2页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的了解信阳市传染病自动预警系统的运转情况,为进一步提高工作质量提供依据。方法收集信阳市2008年7月1日—2012年6月30日期间预警系统的监测数据,运用描述流行病学方法进行统计分析。结果预警系统共发出5 072条预警信号,其中单病例预警信号598条,移动百分位数法4 474条。预警信号24 h内的响应率为90.95%,响应时间中位数为1.4 h(P25～P75:0.45～5.22)。3 281条预警信号(64.69%)通过监测数据分析初步核实。疑似事件信号占总信号数的4.67%,疑似事件信号的完整处置率为26.16%,预警信号的阳性率为0.14%。结论预警信号的响应率较高,预警系统可以实现传染病暴发的早期自动预警。为提高预警效率和预警准确性,需要加强研究以减少假阳性预警信号的数量,提高传染病疫情监测数据的质量,规范预警信号的响应程序。[ Objective ] To learn the operation status of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System （ CIDARS）, provide the evidence for further improving the work quality. [ Methods] The monitoring data in CIDARS from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2012 were collected, and analyzed by the descriptive epidemiological method. [ Results] A total of 5 072 signals were generated in the system, including 598 signals of single case, and 4 474 signals by moving percentile method. 90.95 % of the signals had been responded within 24 hours. The median time to response was 1.4 h （ P25-P75 ：0. 45-5. 22 }. Among them, 3 281 （ 64.69% } signals were preliminarily verified through the analysis of surveillance data. The proportion of signals related to suspec- ted outbreaks to all triggered signals was 4.67% , 26.16% of the suspected outbreaks had been completely processed, and the pos- itive rate of signals was 0.14%. [ Conclusion] The signals of CIDARS have been responded rapidly, and the system can be used to detect potential outbreaks of the infections diseases at the early stage. To improve the efficiency and accuracy of CIDARS, it is nec- essary to pay more efforts to the following areas as how to decrease the false positive signals, enhance the quality of infectious disea- ses monitoring data and standardize the response procedure of early warning signals.

关 键 词：传染病 预警系统 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]