基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源评估与管理  

Stock assessment and management for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on Bayesian Schaefer model

作　　者：陆化杰[1,2,3,4] 陈新军[1,2,3,4] 李纲[1,2,3,4] 曹杰 

机构地区：[1]国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海201306 [2]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306 [3]上海海洋大学大洋生物资源可持续开发和利用上海市高校重点实验室,上海201306 [4]上海海洋大学大洋渔业可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海201306 [5]美国缅因大学海洋科学学院,美国缅因州04469

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2013年第7期2007-2014,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家发改委产业化专项(2159999);国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2012AA092303);国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC41276156);国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAD13B01);上海市科技创新行动计划项目(12231203900)资助;农业部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站的资助

摘　　要：利用基于贝叶斯统计方法的Schaefer模型对西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源量进行评估,并对评估结果进行风险分析.结果表明:正态分布方案和基准方案两个模型参数的预测值及估算的生物学参考点接近,但均大于对数正态分布方案.3种方案下,2001—2010年的捕捞死亡率都远低于限制参考点F0.1,2001—2010年的渔获量也小于最大可持续产量(MSY),表明西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源目前处于良好开发状况,没有遭受过度捕捞.决策分析表明,在相同的收获率情况下,对数正态分布方案得到的2025年资源量最低、资源崩溃的概率最大.3种方案下2025年渔获量最大时的收获率均为0.6,但是若将管理策略定为收获率0.6,则2025年以后资源量存在一定风险,因此较为保守的管理策略应将收获率控制在0.4左右,渔获量在55万t左右.Bayesian Schaefer model was applied to assess the stock of Illex argentinus in the South-west Atlantic Ocean, with the risk of alternative management strategies for the squid analyzed. Under the scenarios of normal and uniform prior assumptions, the estimated model parameters and reference points were similar, and higher than the values under the scenario of logarithmic normal prior assumption. Under the three proposed scenarios, the fishing mortalities and the total catches in 2001-2010 were lower than the reference point F0.1 and the maximum sustainable yield （MSY） , indicating that the I. argentinus was in an expected sustainable exploited level but not in over-fishing and over-fished. The results of decision analysis indicated that at the same harvest rate, the stock of the I. argentinus under the scenario of logarithmic normal prior assumption in 2025 would be the lowest, and the probability of collapse would be the highest. Under the three scenarios, the harvest rate in 2025 would be all 0.6 if the catch was the maximum. However, if the harvest rate was set to 0.6, the stock of the I. argentinus after 2025 would have definite risk, and thus, the harvest rate 0.4 and the catch 550000 t appeared to be the best management regulation or the baseline case.

关 键 词：阿根廷滑柔鱼 资源评估与管理 Schaefer模型 西南大西洋 

分 类 号：S932.4[农业科学—渔业资源]