近50年云南气温序列的均一性检验与订正实验  

Detection and adjustment of experimental homogeneity of mean annual temperature in Yunnan Province fifty years in nearly

作　　者：周建琴[1] 王学锋[1] 黄玮[1] 文忠宇 

机构地区：[1]云南省气候中心,云南昆明650034 [2]楚雄州气象局,云南楚雄675000

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期516-522,共7页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：云南省社会发展科技计划(2009CA023);NSFC-云南联合基金(U1133603);云南省气象局业务能力研究与提升建设专项(YZ201202)

摘　　要：对云南1961—2010年124个地面站的年平均气温作了均一性检验,并对存在非均一台站的年、月平均气温做了订正试验.首先从与待检台站距离较近的10个台站中选择相关性最好的5个站,用相关系数的平方作为加权平均值建立参考序列,然后分别采用标准正态检验(SNHT)、Buishand-range以及Pettitt 3种方法对各台站的年平均气温进行了均一性检验.检验结果显示,有45个台站的年平均气温存在非均一性,占被检验站的36%;在此基础上,采用待检台站与参考台站线性拟合的方法对存在非均一性台站的年、月平均气温资料进行订正,使其能够更好地反映气候的真实变化;订正前后的年、月平均气温的对比分析表明,对序列的订正较为合理.In this paper, mean annual temperature data from 124 stations in Yunnan Province from 1961-- 2010 had been chosen for exploring the experimental homogeneity and adjusting studies. At first, we chosed 5 stations that had good correlations with the candidate series from 10 stations that were near the cheding station, and created a homogeneous reference series for each station seconduy,we tested the homogeneity of the candidate series with standard normal homogeneity test （SNHT）, Buishand -range and Pettitt. Testing results showed that 45 stations mean annual temperature series indicated inhomogeneities which make up 36 percent of total stations in Yunnan Province. In order to reveal the real climate change, we adopted the linear fitting method to adjust the mean annual and monthly temperature series. The analysis between the adjusted annual temperature series and the original series indicated that the adjusting was reasonable.

关 键 词：年平均气温序列 均一性检验和订正 标准正态检验 Buishand-range Pettitt 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]