我国大中城市不同层次房价上涨的影响因素比较分析——基于35个大中城市的面板数据分析  

The Comparative Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Housing Prices of Different Levels in Large and Medium Cities in China—Based on the Panel Data Analysis of 35 Large and Medium Cities in China

作　　者：王琴英[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《改革与战略》2013年第8期52-56,共5页Reformation & Strategy

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"十二五前期价格上涨趋势及主要影响因素分析"(项目编号:11AJY009);国家社科基金项目"我国农产品价格波动与调控机制研究"(项目编号:10BJY087);北京市教委科技创新平台项目"价格波动研究"

摘　　要：2009年以来,我国35个大中城市的商品住宅房价基本形成了三个层次的房价水平,这三个层次房价城市的平均房价与房价收入比具有明显的差异。面板数据模型分析表明,引起各层次房价城市的商品住宅均价持续上涨的主要因素是房地产开发投资总额成本和货币市场流动性,它们对第一层次房价城市的弹性影响强度明显大于第二、三层次房价城市。资金市场预期对第一层次房价城市和第二层次房价城市中的杭州、厦门、宁波和广州的房价上涨产生了抑制效应,而对第二层次房价城市中的南京、福州、天津、大连和海口以及整个第三层次房价城市的房价上涨没有抑制作用。Since 2009, Commercial housing prices formed three tiers of price levels on 35 large and medium cities in China. The average prices and house price income ratio of these three level house price cities have obvious differences. The Analysis of panel data model show that the main factors are the total amount of investment in real estate development and Money market liquidity, these main factors cause commercial housing prices of first, second and third-tier price cities going up, and their elastic impact on first-tier price cities strength significantly larger than the second and third-tier price cities. Financial markets expected had inhibitory effects to Price increases on first-tier price cities and second-tier price cities of Hangzhou, Xiamen, Ningbo and Guangzhou, but no inhibitory effects on second-tier price cities of Tianjin, Dalian, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Haikou and all third-tier price cities.

关 键 词：大中城市 三个层次房价水平 面板数据模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]