贸易开放对地方政府支出规模影响的实证研究  

Influence of Trade Openness on Local Government Scale in China:An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Spatial Panel Models

作　　者：胡兵[1] 陈少林[2] 乔晶[3] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]重庆师范大学涉外商贸学院 [3]重庆工商大学管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2013年第8期38-50,共13页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划项目"贸易开放对我国政府规模影响的理论分析与实证研究"(批准号:2011YBJJ034);教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目"中国对外直接投资影响因素的实证研究"(批准号:11XJC790003);国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国对外直接投资的贸易效应及政策研究"(批准号:12CJY084)

摘　　要：通过构建动态空间面板模型,基于系统GMM方法和省级面板数据实证研究贸易开放对地方政府规模的影响。结果发现:地方政府财政总量支出具有时间上的路径依赖特征和空间上的策略模仿特征;各财政细分科目支出的路径依赖特征明显,空间策略互动特征各异。人均收入的增加引起地方政府财政支出的缩减,财政分权导致的政府竞争推动支出规模的扩大,"瓦格纳"法则和"利维坦"假说在中国均不成立。贸易开放能够促进政府效率的改善,有利于抑制地方政府规模的膨胀,但贸易开放存在滞后的补偿效应,会导致未来政府支出规模和结构的调整。Using dynamic spatial panel models and system GMM method, this study attempts to examine the effect of trade openness on China＇s local government scales. The empirical results indicate that the local govemment expenditure is heavily characterized by path-dependence temporally （conventions） and by strategy-emulation spatially （imitation between local govemments）. This study also demonstrates that Wagner＇s law does not hold true for China, and that the financial decentralization contributes to the expansion in China＇s government expendi- tures. Moreover, the empirical findings also highlight the role of trade openness in determining the local government scale. Additionally, a significant negative relevance is found between trade openness and local government expenditure scale, which is supportive of the efficiency hypothesis.

关 键 词：贸易开放 政府规模 动态空间面板模型 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]