我国大蒜出口的“大国效应”研究  

Study of “Power Effect” in China’s Garlic Exports

作　　者：肖小勇[1] 李崇光[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2013年第8期61-71,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国鲜活农产品价格形成;波动机制与调控政策研究"(编号:12&ZD048);国家自然科学基金"生鲜农产品供应链突发事件风险评估与应急协调机制研究"(编号:71003042);国家自然科学基金"基于动态CGE模型情景模拟的蔬菜价格波动与价格传导机制研究"(编号:71273104);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(编号:2013YB16);国家大宗蔬菜现代产业技术体系产业经济研究专项(编号:nycytx-35)

摘　　要：国内农产品市场与国际农产品市场是相互联系、密不可分的整体。本文首先运用"出口贸易大国"模型分析国内大蒜价格、国际大蒜价格、大蒜出口量和大蒜出口额等变量间的内生运行机制,然后运用VAR模型实证检验变量之间的动态关系。研究结论:(1)我国大蒜出口存在"大国效应";(2)国内大蒜价格和国际大蒜价格显著影响我国大蒜出口量。(3)在"大国效应"和弱弹性的共同作用下,我国大蒜出口频发"量增额减"和"量减额增"现象。基于研究结论,本文提出若干政策建议。Against the globlization backdrop, domestic and international agricultural products markets have been integrated as a whole. Using the ＂Export Trade Power＂ model, this paper firstly analyzes the endogenous mechanism among such variables as domestic garlic price international garlic price and the quantity and value of garlic exports. Then, this paper applies VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships between the above variables. Conclusions are as follows： （1） there exists the ＂power effect＂ in China＇ s garlic exports; （2） do- mestic and international garlic prices significantly influence the quantity of China＇ s garlic exports; （3） with the combination of ＂power effect＂ and the weak elasticity of garlic prices, two typical phenomena usually emerge in China＇ s garlic exports： the quantity of garlic exports decreased while the value increased or the quantity increased while the value decreased. A few suggestions are proposed at the end of the paper according to the findings.

关 键 词：大蒜 出口 大国效应 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]