上海市嘉定区流感控制图法预警技术研究  

Study on early detection for influenza in Jiading district of Shanghai

作　　者：陈冬华[1] 钱杰[1] 李强 汤伟琴 杨帆 陈斌 季莹[1] 张一英[1] 周浩[1] 钟培松[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市嘉定区疾病预防控制中心,上海201800 [2]上海市嘉定区华亭社区卫生服务中心,上海201816

出　　处：《上海医药》2013年第14期42-43,共2页Shanghai Medical & Pharmaceutical Journal

摘　　要：目的:为流感监测系统提供预警方法和预警界值,提高流感疫情监测预警能力。方法:利用2004-2009年嘉定区流感监测数据建立预警数据库,采用控制图法建立预警模型,通过计算、比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和绘制ROC曲线,选出合适的预警界值。结果:综合平衡灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、预测功效等指标后,将P55作为嘉定区流感预警界值。结论:控制图法可以作为嘉定区流感早期预警方法。Objective： To select the premium alert threshold for influenza by using the control chart technique and to upgrade the early detection capability of influenza. Method： Alert data was based on the report of influenza information from 2004 to 2009. Control chart was used to detect outbreak or epidemic after calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value and ROC, and the premium alert threshold for Jiading district was chosen. Result： After the comprehensive consideration of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and ROC, P55 was chosen as the premium alert threshold for influenza in Jiading district. Conclusion： Control chart will be a good early detection technique for influenza surveillance.

关 键 词：流感样病例 流感监测 控制图法 预警界值 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]