灰色马尔可夫理论在地震预测方面的研究  

Research of the earthquake prediction based on gray Markov mode

作　　者：王党席[1] 董平江[1] 韩晓飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省地震局,中国西安710068

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2013年第3期41-45,共5页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：陕西省地震局青年科研基金课题(编号201106)

摘　　要：以陕南地区汶川地震余震资料数据为实例,提出灰色马尔可夫模型对地震进行预测。利用传统的GM(1,1)模型对数据进行拟合和初步预测,运用马尔可夫模型的状态区间和状态转移矩阵对初步预测值进行修正,并对下一组地震数据进行预测。结果表明,模型预测精度高,预测值与实际值接近,可以作为今后地震预报的辅助手段。The interest of this paper is to propose a Gray Markov （GM） model for earthquake predic- tion with the example of the 2008 Wenchuan aftershocks occured in the area of southern Shaanxi provinces. The aftershocks data are fitted for a preliminary prediction based on GM（1,1） model. The results of preliminary prediction are revised using Markov modelrs state interval and state transition matrix. The next group of earthquake data are used to pre- dict based on Gray-Markov model. It shows that the method is more accurate. The results show that the predicted values and real values are in a good match. Then, the predicted val- ues and real values are also very close. This method can be recognized as practicality in earthquake prediction, even in the field of weather forecast.

关 键 词：地震预测 GM(1 1) 灰色马尔可夫模型 状态转移矩阵 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]