经济全球化下两岸四地货币一体化的实证研究①——基于经济冲击对称性的视角  

Empirical Research on Monetary Integration of Cross-straits Four Areas under Economic Globalization:from the Perspective of Symmetrical Economic Shocks

作　　者：戴淑庚[1] 林捷泉[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《福建行政学院学报》2013年第3期87-97,共11页Journal of Fujian Administration Institute

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学发展报告建设项目(11JBGP006);中央高校基础创新项目(2011231042);广义虚拟经济研究专项2013年度第一批资助项目[GX2013-1005(Y)]

摘　　要：经济全球化的不断发展驱使经济联系紧密的经济体进行货币合作。运用产出和价格的两变量SVAR模型考察了大陆、香港、澳门和台湾的经济冲击对称性,发现两岸四地经济冲击具有一定的对称性,且需求冲击的对称性要优于供给冲击的对称性,但是两岸四地经济冲击的对称性水平并不理想,澳门在冲击规模和调整速度上与大陆、香港和台湾均存在较大差异,两岸四地货币一体化的实现将会是一个长期而曲折的历史过程。General Progress on Economic Globalization Drives Regional Monetary Cooperation among Economic Entity which Economic Ties Closely. This paper observes the symmetry of economic shocks of China's Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan using a two-variable SVAR Model and finds that the economic shocks of the four areas is symmetric to some degree and the symmetry of demand shocks is better than that of supply shocks. However, the symmetry of economic shocks of the four areas is not satisfied enough, and Macao in particular differs a lot from China's Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan in the size and adjustment speed of the shocks. Thus the realization of the monetary integration of the four areas will be a long and tortuous process.

关 键 词：两岸四地 货币一体化 SVAR 经济冲击对称性 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F224