树轮记录的川西金川1713-2010年6月平均气温变化  

Variations of June Air Temperature Derived from Tree-Ring Records in 1713-2010 in Jinchuan,West Sichuan Plateau,China

作　　者：肖丁木[1,2] 秦宁生[1,3,4] 李金建[4] 李媛媛[4] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,成都610225 [2]四川省气象台,成都610072 [3]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [4]四川省农业气象中心,成都610072

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2013年第4期252-257,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41075066);公益性气象行业科研专项(GYHY201106013-6-6);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05080201)

摘　　要：利用采自川西高原金川情人海沟的云杉树轮样本,分析了树轮宽度与气候要素的关系。结果表明:树轮宽度指数与金川气象站6月平均气温具有显著的正相关关系。利用标准化树轮宽度指数重建了该区域1713—2010年6月平均气温序列,交叉检验及各项检验的参数表明重建方程是稳定可靠的。近298年来川西金川6月平均气温为18.2℃,经历了3个暖期和4个冷期。暖期时段为1825—1839、1854—1892和1951—1961年;冷期时段为1792—1804、1842—1853、1864—1893和1911—1924年。周期分析结果表明,重建序列存在2～3、7～8、20～30、32～64和70～130a的变化周期。Tree-ring width ofPicea schrenkiana sampled at Jinchuan and its response to climate change were analyzed. Correlation analysis indicates that the tree-ring chronology and the June mean air temperature at Jinchuan station in the West Sichuan Plateau was significantly correlated. The June mean air temperature series of 1713-2010 at Jinchuan was well reconstructed. Its reliability was substantiated by the leave-one-out method. According to the reconstructed temperature series, the June mean air temperature over the period was 18.2 ℃. The reconstructed series contained three warm periods： 1825-1839, 1854-1892 and 1951-1961, as well as four cold periods： 1792-1804, 1842- 1853, 1864-1893 and 1911-1924. Power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis show that the series had variation periods of 2-3, 7-8, 20-30, 32-64 and 70-130 years.

关 键 词：川西高原 树轮宽度 气候重建 平均气温 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]