国家级中尺度天气分析业务技术进展Ⅰ:对流天气环境场分析业务技术规范的改进与产品集成系统支撑技术  

Advances of Mesoscale Convective Weather Analysis in NMCⅠ:Convective Weather Environment Analysis and Supporting Techniques

作　　者：张涛 蓝渝 毛冬艳 郑永光 唐文苑 曹莉 张小玲 谌芸 方翀 周晓霞 赵素蓉 刘鑫华 田付友 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2013年第7期894-900,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206004和GYHY201206003);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2013CB430106)共同资助

摘　　要：中尺度天气分析技术已经在我国天气预报业务中发挥了重要作用。2011年以来国家级中尺度天气分析业务技术取得了明显进展,促进了国家级强对流预报业务的发展。《中尺度天气分析业务技术规范》已重新编写和完善,内容分为两篇,第一篇是中尺度对流天气环境场分析;第二篇为中尺度对流天气过程分析,第二篇为新增内容,将另文介绍。短时和短期时效内中尺度对流天气环境场条件分析以配料法思路为基础,重新编排和简化了分析内容,兼顾分析的精细化和分析产品的可操作性,增加了分类强对流天气分析量化指标建议供预报参考,新增了基于局地探空的强对流天气分析规范。中尺度天气分析业务的支撑技术是推进该业务的必备基础,因此国家气象中心改进了MICAPS 3中尺度天气主观分析工具箱功能;开发了中尺度天气分析产品集成系统,包括强对流天气监测产品、中尺度天气分析主观和客观产品、基于不同数值模式预报的强对流参数诊断产品等的数据产品和图形产品等。The mesoscale convective weather analysis plays an important role in operational forecasting. Progresses have been made in both the mesoscale analysis technique and its operation since 2011,which have significantly promoted the development of severe weather forecasting in the National Meteorological Centre（NMC）.The updated Mesoscale Analysis Technical Specification consists of two parts.The mesoscale convective weather environment analysis is presented in this paper while the contents of the mesoscale nowcasting analysis are to be introduced in another paper.Based on ingredient method,the analysis content of the specification was simplified and reconstructed;meanwhile the refinements and the manipulation of analyzing products were given fully consideration.Moreover,a new part of sounding analysis and the quantitative standards for convective parameters were added into the specification.In the aspect of supporting technology,the subjective analyzing toolbox for mesoscale convective weather（in MICAPS 3） was improved,and a product integration system,including data and graphic products of severe convective weather monitoring,subjective and objective mesoscale analysis,diagnostic products of convective parameters and so on,was developed and has been being used in NMC.

关 键 词：中尺度分析 对流天气 探空分析 支撑技术 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]