国家级中尺度天气分析业务技术进展Ⅱ:对流天气中尺度过程分析规范和支撑技术  

Advances of Mesoscale Convective Weather Analysis in NMC H:Mesoscale Nowcasting Analysis and Supporting Techniques

作　　者：蓝渝 张涛 郑永光 毛冬艳 朱文剑 林隐静 张小玲 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2013年第7期901-910,共10页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206003和GYHY201206004);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2013CB430106)共同资助

摘　　要：中尺度天气分析技术在对流性天气的短期预报业务中发挥了重要作用。文章介绍了国家气象中心正在发展和试运行的对流天气中尺度过程分析规范和支撑技术,旨在为中尺度对流天气的短时临近分析和预报提供技术方法,其客观技术支撑为中国气象局强对流短临预报系统SWAN、强对流天气综合监测技术和自动站资料快速客观分析技术等。文章以2011年4月17日强对流过程为例,介绍了如何利用多源观测资料(常规和非常规资料)快速识别和掌握强对流天气(短时强降水、雷暴大风、冰雹、龙卷等)实况,分析当前对流系统类型及其结构特征,判断未来影响对流系统发生、发展的中尺度环境条件,并综合考虑客观自动外推算法产品,最终指导预报员对未来0～6 h内的强对流天气影响区域进行短临预报预警。业务试验表明,对流天气中尺度过程分析技术可为强对流天气短临预报业务提供重要参考和依据。Mesoscale convective analysis plays an important role in short-term severe convective weather forecasting.In this paper,the mesoscale nowcasting analysis and its related techniques being used in the National Meteorological Centre（NMC） are presented.The mesoscale nowcasting analysis is the second part of Mesoscale Analysed Technical Specification.A comprehensive analysis method combined with subjective nowcasting techniques and objective algorithm based on CMA Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting system（SWAN） is used.The techniques of severe convective weather monitoring,and objective analyzing method of automatic observation station are also introduced.Taking the convective weather that occurred on 17 April 2011 as an example,we show how to quickly identify and acquire the actual severe convective weather events such as short-time severe precipitation,wind gusts,thunderstorm,hail and tornadoes, analyze the types and structural characteristics of the ongoing mesoscale convective system,judge the favorable mesoscale environments for the future development of the convective system and apply the objective identification,tracking and extrapolation products based on radar and satellite data,so as to guide the convective nowcasting in 0—6 h period.Tests in NMC show that the mesoscale nowcasting analysis can provide reliable references for severe convective weather nowcasting.

关 键 词：中尺度分析 对流天气 短临预报 中尺度过程分析 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]