小样本数据下安徽省经济—环境系统协调发展的实证分析  

Coordinated development of economy and environment in Anhui Province based on small sample data

作　　者：宋马林[1] 徐龙[1] 王舒鸿[2] 张琳玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学管理统计研究中心,蚌埠233030 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《地理研究》2013年第8期1402-1410,共9页Geographical Research

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0595);国家自然科学基金项目(71171001);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC630208);安徽高等学校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2011A001);全国统计科研计划重点项目(2011LZ023);安徽省软科学项目(12020503063);"知行南开"研究生社会调研项目(2012027)

摘　　要：作为一个非线性复杂系统,经济与环境之间相互作用,两者之间如果彼此协调,就能推动社会的可持续发展,反之则会阻碍社会的发展,中国各省份情况概莫能外。使用主成分分析和环境与经济系统协调度计量模型,对安徽省2000-2010年的经济—环境协调状况进行了定量分析,计算出该省经济—环境之间的协调度;然后利用基于IOWA算子的组合预测方法,对小样本数据进行外推预测;进而给出"十二五"期间实现安徽省经济—环境系统协调发展的政策建议,指出当地政府在制定相应公共政策时,应对本地区经济—环境系统影响较大的因子予以格外关注,同时要避免地区之间争夺区域外投资的恶性竞争,否则将不利于经济—环境系统的协调发展。Economy and environment, as a nonlinear complicated system, are interactive to each other. By introducing the principal component analysis （PCA） and the calculation model for measuring coordination degree between environmental and economic systems, we firstly conducted a quantitative analysis of economic and environmental situations in Anhui province during the period 2000-2010. After obtaining the coordination degrees, we deducted and predicted the small sample data based on IOWA operator methodology. Finally, according to the results, we made some suggestions on how to realize harmonious development of economy and environment in Anhui Province during the ＇12th Five-year Plan Period＇ （2011-2015）, for example, when formulating appropriate public policies, local governments should place more emphasis on the factors which have great effects on the regional economy-environment system, and at the same time avoid vicious competition for foreign investments. Otherwise, coordination development of the economy- environment system can not be realized.

关 键 词：经济-环境 协调度 主成分分析 小样本 组合预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F127F205