绿色住宅市场的系统动力学仿真研究  

Study on green residential building market simulation method based on system dynamics

作　　者：杨晓冬[1] 武永祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《土木工程学报》2013年第8期119-122,共4页China Civil Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71073036;70773030);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(HIT.HSS.2011.38)

摘　　要：面对越来越严重的资源与环境危机,政府也更加关注绿色住宅的建设,这也是房地产企业未来的开发趋势。首先界定绿色住宅和绿色住宅市场的内涵与特征,在对绿色住宅市场系统分析的基础上,建立需求子系统、开发决策子系统、政府行为子系统,分析其因果反馈关系,绘制系统的存量流量图。接下来采用Vensim PLE软件对南京市绿色住宅市场进行动态仿真模拟与预测,结果显示,绿色住宅市场有更广阔的发展前景,会逐渐获得消费者的认可,并占据一定的市场份额,最终该市场将趋于稳定。结合模拟结果,最后提出绿色住宅市场发展的对策建议。该仿真结果预测绿色住宅市场的不同阶段的发展趋势,为政府政策的制定和房地产企业开发决策提供参考。Under increasingly serious resource and environmental crisis, green residential building is more and more concerned by the government and will dominates the development of real estate companies. Firstly, the definitions of green housing and green housing market are given, and the demand subsystem, decision-making subsystem and government behaviors subsystem are established based on systematic analysis. Then causal feedback relationships are analyzed and flow chart of the system is drawn. Next, Vensim PLE software is used to simulate, forecast and analyze the green residential building market in Nanjing. The analysis results shows that the future market will keep developing, get acceptance from consumers, own some market share and finally keep stable. At last, some measurements and suggestions on the market development are put forward. This simulation results are helpful to forecast different development stages of green housing market and provide a reference to the decisions of governments and real estate companies.

关 键 词：绿色住宅市场 系统动力学 市场预测 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]