中国LNG产业发展现状、问题与市场空间  

Development, problems and market share of the LNG industry in China

作　　者：周淑慧[1] 郜婕[1] 杨义[1] 李波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2013年第6期5-15,109-110,共11页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：近年来中国进口LNG的购销价格严重倒挂,国内天然气液化厂无序建设,LNG市场将持续供过于求,天然气液化厂的利润空间逐步缩小。按照2015年我国消费天然气2300亿立方米、2020年4000亿立方米估算,考虑储气库规划和建设节奏,若满足全部调峰缺口,2015年大致需要LNG接收站解决的季节调峰量为60亿立方米,2020年为190亿立方米。考虑我国天然气需求及LNG调峰需求,2015年LNG引进空间大致为300亿立方米,2020年为400亿立方米。目前已建和在建LNG接收站可以满足和弥补2015年市场缺口和调峰的需求;到2020年,还需要增加3200万吨/年的接收和汽化能力。预测2015年全国LNG直销市场潜力为180亿立方米,2020年为390亿立方米。在接收站定位、LNG采购与价格、液化厂建设及市场培育等方面,建议政府和企业深入研究,把握好建设的步伐和引进规模。In recent years, Chinese buying and selling prices of imported LNG have experienced a serious inversion, putting the offer price below the bid price and disrupting domestic construction of natural gas liquefaction plants, with the LNG market continuing to oversupply, leading to narrowing profit margins. Given expected national gas consumption of 230 billion cubic meters in 2015, and 400 billion cubic meters in 2020, plus the planning and construction pace for gas storage, to meet the oversupply gap LNG receiving stations should incur seasonal peak shaving of 6 billion cubic meters in 2015, and 19 billion cubic meters in 2020, making the import space for LNG resources 30 billion cubic meters in 2015, and 40 billion cubic meters in 2020. The peak shaving required in 2015 to meet the market gap in demand could be satisfied by the LNG receiving stations built or currently under construction. By 2020, 32 mmtpa should be added to receiving and gasification ability. LNG receiving stations will take on the peak shaving function for the coastal market. The direct-sale market potential of LNG is forecast to be 18 billion cubic meters in 2015, and 39 billion cubic meters in 2020. In positioning and developing LNG receiving stations, in purchasing and pricing LNG resources, and in constructing and developing the markets of domestic LNG liquefaction plants, appropriate departments and enterprises should do research in order to pace the construction of LNG receiving stations and liquefaction plants and the scale at which to introduce LNG resources.

关 键 词：中国 LNG产业 LNG接收站 天然气液化厂 供应 需求 价格 调峰 市场空间 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]