中国电子货币的通货膨胀效应——基于2003-2011年季度数据的实证分析  

The Inflation Effect of Electronic Money in China : Based on Positive Analysis of Quarterly Data from 2003 to 2011

作　　者：王亮[1] 吴浜源[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2013年第4期13-18,124,共6页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：将电子货币引入通货膨胀形成机制的理论分析框架发现,电子货币通过改变货币供求结构和货币流通速度产生通货膨胀效应。基于2003、2011年的季度数据,运用误差修正模型的实证分析结果表明我国电子货币的通货膨胀效应显著存在。从长期来看,一方面,电子货币会使货币流通速度先下降后上升,并且当前货币流通速度的下降降低了通货膨胀率;另一方面,电子货币通过减小货币乘数提高了通货膨胀率。而在短期,电子货币导致的货币乘数减小降低了通货膨胀率。It is found by introducing electronic money to the theoretical analysis framework of inflation formation mechanism that electronic money produces effects on inflation through changing the structure of money supply and demand and the speed of currency circulation.Based on the quarterly data of China from 2003 to 2011,the authors use error correction model to show that the effect of electronic money on inflation is obvious.In long term,on the one hand,electronic money makes the speed of currency circulation firstly down and then up.The present decline of the speed of currency circulation has reduced inflation rate.On the other hand,electronic money advances the speed of currency circulation by lowering monetary multiplier.However,electronic money reduces inflation rate by lowering monetary multiplier in short term.

关 键 词：电子货币 通货膨胀 货币乘数 货币流通速度 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]